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Monsoon rains below normal this year - Naveed Yaseen - 07-09-2009 05:16 AM
* Met Department DG says rains likely to start within 24 to 48 hours
* No sign of drought-like conditions
By Aamir Yasin
ISLAMABAD: The monsoon season is behind the schedule and rains will be 10 percent below the normal this year due to global warming and development of weak El-Nino conditions, said Metrological Department.
Talking to Daily Times on Wednesday, Metrological Department Director General Dr Qamaruz Zaman Chaudhry said the monsoon was likely to start within next 24 to 48 hours.
He said hot and dry weather was likely in most parts of the country during next few days, however regular monsoon rains would start in the country, particularly in the upper parts, by the end of the week.
Revised forecast: He said the Met Office had also downgraded its earlier monsoon seasonal rainfall forecast from +10 percent to –10 percent. He said both these forecasts fall in the normal monsoon rains, because + 10 percent is characterised as normal.
He said normally the monsoon in Pakistan started in the first week of July but due to change in global pattern due to global warming and weak development of El-Nino conditions, this year it was behind the schedule and active monsoon was likely to start within two days and it would continue till the first week of September.
He said keeping in view the rapid changes in global atmospheric conditions, especially World Meteorological Organization’s advisory about the likelihood of development of El-Niño conditions during the second half of 2009, the Met office had revised its earlier monsoon seasonal forecast, which was issued in mid June predicting above normal monsoon.
He said the seasonal winds from South to North were gathering on the country bringing rainfall to the area. He said this weather system was likely to produce scattered dust thunderstorm and rain in most parts of the country including Kashmir, NWFP and the Punjab particularly in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Lahore, Sargodha, Peshawar, Hazara, Hyderabad and Mirpur Khas divisions.
No drought: He said there were no signs of drought-like conditions in the country. However, he admitted that the low rains would affect the availability of water in reservoirs but not extremely.
According to Met Office report, from July to September last year, the country had received moderately above normal rainfall (27.2 percent). The Punjab received normal (1.5 percent), NWFP and Balochistan slightly above normal (22 percent and 12.4 percent respectively) and Sindh largely above normal (116.6 percent).
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009\07\09\story_9-7-2009_pg11_8